Analysis for: EUR/USD

08.11.2010

EURUSD

Analysis for a week, 08.11 – 12.11
Last week EURUSD could not break out and remain over the level 1.4300, then price fell down under the main resistance level of 1.4080 and it triggered a stedy downtrend that came to the lower limit of uptrend «В-В+» with resistance of 1.3890. For the moment the market seems to look more bearish than bullish. On the daily chart we can see the trend reversal pattern  «double peak» with strong divergency of price chart, it gives an impulpe to bearish mood. Thus, if the market goes under the resistance level 1.3890 we can expect it to go to the resistance of 1.3770 and in case of reaching the level under 1.3770 the downtrend will intesify and becomes stable reaching the level of 1.3400 – 1.3290.

We can also expect a stable uptrend in case of growth over the level 1.4320, the following key level would be 1.4510 that might prevent the further growth. In case of growth oevr the level 1.4510 we can expect the price to reach the level 1.5000. Now EURUSD is under the resistance level of 1.4225, any growth tentative seems to be correction of the current trend.

Analysis for a month, November.

EURUSD is now in a local sideward trend «В-В+» forming a pattern called a “diamond” that stands for reversal pattern and pattern of trend continuation as well. This pattern might become a cause for development of a new correction wave to reduce the price on the main support levels 1.3290 – 1.3415. It will happen in case of breaking down of the main support level 1.3770. This pattern has been formed due to the fact that the price could not reach strong resistance level of 1.3970. If the price breaks down the support level 1.3290, we could expect the downward trend to continue to the support level 1.2895 and to 1.2200. Analyzing the wave patterns we can suppose that the resistance level 1.3290 can become the lowest limit point and, if bouncing from the level, the fourth correction wave would be formed and the fifth one would be started in upward trend with the price purpose of 1.4500 and 1.5000. Upward trend could be confirmed, if the price breaks through the level 1.3770.

At the same time the major trend «С-С+» goes upward, so if the market breaks through the resistance level 1.4080 – 1.4040, we can expect the trend «С-С+» to continue to the main resistance level 1.4510 (where the trend line «Q» passes by). If the price breaks the level 1.4510, the upward trend would continue, testing the resistance of 1.5000.

Analysis for a quarter, August – October

If the price breaks through the level 1.2760 (getting out of downward trend «F-F+»), it would be changed to uptrend (wave «а») to reach the resistance levels 1.3425 – 1.3620. The correction wave is to be expected to form starting from these levels and going down «b» to the main resistance level 1.2760 – 1.2600. Then we can experience two variants of how the situation might develop:
1.In case of confirming the resistance level the upward waive «с» can be formed to go to resistance of 1.4450.
2. When lowering down the level of 1.2600 the downward trend can be formed to go to support of 1.1650.
* TO better understand the levels of reversal waives check the quarterly, monthly and weekly analysis.

Analysis for a year, 2010 – 2011.

EURUSD broke down the level 1.2700 (neckline of Head and Shoulders line), it strengthened the impulse of downtrend. At the moment the price level purpose is 0.9890 – 1.0200, this trend remains in force until it is under the level 1.3100. Intermediate supports are 1.1655 and 1.000.

Pattern cancellation and development of uptrend starts in case of breaking through the level 1.3100. In this case the price purpose can be the resistance of 1.4630.

Leading analytic of the company,
Anton Colganov